Reading Time: 5 minutesRIO DE JANEIRO—Earlier this month, hours after Brazil’s Congress approved a bill that would double or triple the sentences handed out to members of criminal gangs, Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas posted a short video on Instagram in which he sounded like much more than a mere governor of São Paulo state.
“Today, all law-abiding citizens have reasons to celebrate,” he said. Wearing a black polo shirt, speaking firmly, he sounded as if he himself had authored the bill—even though it was in fact mostly drafted by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration. “Public security is at the center of the national debate,” he continued. “Those who can’t understand that don’t understand the country.”
It was a presidential candidate’s speech in a presidential-style video, the product of presidential-level congressional maneuvering, speaking on a topic that will almost certainly be one of the pillars of Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. So why does Tarcísio de Freitas, the hands-down favorite of investors inside Brazil and on Wall Street, keep insisting he’ll run for reelection as governor instead? Is he wary of a tough head-to-head matchup against Lula, who currently leads all major polls? Or does he think his name will be vetoed by Jair Bolsonaro’s sons, amid the discord and confusion that already reigned on the Brazilian right even before the former president was taken into police custody on Saturday?
