Labour’s disastrous local elections in the UK look like putting paid to Keir Starmer’s premiership. With Fianna Fáil seemingly heading for a drubbing in next week’s byelections, are there similar implications for Micheál Martin’s leadership?
While an immediate threat to his position is unlikely, a really bad result for Fianna Fáil will have implications for how long he remains party leader and Taoiseach. The prospect of the Fianna Fáil candidates trailing in not only behind Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, but behind Labour, the Social Democrats and some Independents, is bound to generate soul searching in the party about its future direction.
The party’s vote in Dublin Central has collapsed since the heady days of 2007 when it won 44.5 per cent, with Bertie Ahern hoovering up support. In the 2024 general election, it obtained a paltry 7 per cent. It might be lucky to get even that share of the vote next Friday.
In Galway West, the drop from 37 per cent in 2007 to 17 per cent in 2024 was not as precipitous, but the indications are that it will be down again, possibly dramatically, next Friday.
When Martin first took over as party leader 15 years ago, the party was in the throes of a calamitous collapse, dropping from more than 80 seats to five in the general election of 2011. The demise of Fianna Fáil as a serious political force was widely forecast, with many pundits predicting that Martin would be the first leader not to become Taoiseach.
