Money
May 06, 2026
So many gyrations since a year ago. President Trump’s tariff revisions and his trade deals. The US Supreme Court ruling against his 2025 onslaught. New temporary tariffs to replace those struck down. Upcoming refunds now? More tariffs to replace the temporary ones? More deals? Details. Beyond the Iran war, many investors still sweat the twists in US President Donald Trump’s tariff tango. You should skip this stress. Why? Surprises sway stocks most. Widely known tariff terror now packs little real surprise power regardless of whatever Trump does.
February’s ruling and Trump’s subsequent actions and threats do not change my 2026 outlook – which itself didn’t feature tariffs heavily. Tariff turmoil is old news, and here is why that matters.
Don’t misunderstand: tariffs are always bad – especially for the imposing nation, as US stocks’ heavy 2025 lag versus the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) showed. When President Trump unveiled his initial “Liberation Day” tariffs, their scope, size and bizarre oddity were a sharp downside surprise. So, stocks swooned fast, pre-pricing worst-case scenarios of retaliation against the US and deep hits to world trade.
