Good morning. Today all eyes are firmly fixed on Beijing ahead of President Donald Trump’s two-day state visit, the first time a sitting U.S. president has travelled to China in almost a decade.
Despite its historic weight, few anticipate substantive policy breakthroughs. A deescalation of tensions and normalization of the bilateral trade relationship between the two countries, which together comprise over 40% of global GDP, are what business leaders and China watchers I’ve spoken with expect to see. This will be a meeting big on symbolism, leaning in on the personal relationship—what some have dubbed the “bromance”—between the two leaders.
That doesn’t mean that deals won’t be made by Trump and the 17 CEOs travelling with the president, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who was a last-minute addition to the delegation. China is conversant with the Trump playbook, and the president is likely to return to the United States with a list of trade deals in non-strategic sectors that can be totaled as a big dollar figure and paraded as victories. Purchase commitments on U.S. commodities—including soybeans, beef, and other agricultural products—as well as the completion of a long-delayed deal for China to buy up to 500 Boeing 737 MAX jets are likely to be among the big wins touted on Air Force One on the way home. The U.S. also wants China to commit to purchases of American coal, oil, and natural gas.
