Exclusive: Where parties fielded multiple candidates in last week’s vote, those at top of list were more likely to be picked
Fancy your chances in politics? Then perhaps you should change your name to Aaron Aaronson or Aaliyah Aardvark, figures from last week’s local elections in England suggest.
A Guardian analysis of election results compiled by the website Democracy Club points to a striking alphabet effect. In wards where a party fielded three candidates, those listed nearer the top of the ballot paper – with a surname nearer the start of the alphabet – finished ahead of their party colleagues in 2,200 cases, or 65% of the time.
By contrast, candidates listed third out of their party’s list – with a surname nearer the end of the alphabet – topped their party’s slate only 382 times, or 11%. If ballot order had no relationship with performance, the figures would be expected to fall much closer to one-third in each position.
The figures show that out of the main parties in England, Reform had the strongest relationship between where candidates placed among their party colleagues, and the initials of their surname. About 74% of alphabetically advantaged Reform candidates topped their party’s vote, compared with fewer than 8% of Reform candidates nearest the bottom of the ballot paper. The Green party had the second-strongest surname effect, followed by Labour.
