Prime minister will say ‘incremental change won’t cut it’ as he tries to convince Labour MPs to back him after Thursday’s election losses
Good morning. The news this morning is full of speculation about whether or not there will be a Labour leadership contest. A better way of explaining the situation might be to say that a leadership contest is already under way; Angela Rayner issued what was in effect her manifesto late yesterday afternoon (although she also hinted she would be happy for it to be delivered by Andy Burnham as leader), and Keir Starmer delivers what you could see as a hustings speech this morning.
Leaders can survive challenges. In 1995 John Major was widely seen as doomed, but Michael Portillo postponed a decision to stand against him, Major easily saw off a challenge from John Redwood (the Catherine West of his day, in some respects), and Major survived another two years. In 2016 the vast majority of Labour MPs voted no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn, but he survived (because he was adored by Labour members, a benefit that Starmer does not enjoy). In 2006 Tony Blair accepted he would have to go. But he was allowed to work his notice for a year; Gordon Brown and his allies were powerful enough to force him out, but not to force him out quickly.
