Vladimir Putin used his Victory Day speech to claim confidence in Russia’s triumphs, as he presided over a dramatically scaled-back parade in Moscow on Saturday.Addressing the crowd at the annual parade, which marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in the Second World War, the Russian leader voiced that he was confident of victory in Ukraine.“Victory has always been and will be ours,” Putin said, as columns of troops lined up on Red Square. “The key to success is our moral strength, courage and valour, our unity and ability to endure anything and overcome any challenge.”Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree “permitting” Russia to hold the military parade and said his forces wouldn’t target Red Square, after Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire.Putin attempted to use his speech, which lasted less than 10 minutes, to project strength, claiming Russia would succeed in the Ukraine war thanks to its “moral strength, courage and valour”.But the parade was a far cry from past years, when it had been used to show off Russia's vast military, including its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles. Four years ago, Putin had stood grandly at a podium, surveying a legion of armoured military vehicles. Weeks earlier, he’d invaded neighbouring Ukraine, sparking a conflict that has dragged on ever since. During a defiant speech on that day, the Russian president launched an attack on Nato, Ukraine and a host of Western countries. Surrounded by military hardware, he insisted that Russia was “fighting for the motherland, for her future, and so that nobody forgets the lessons of World War II”. But this year things are different. For the first time in nearly two decades, those celebrations went ahead without any showy and heavy military hardware, amid new fears of long-range Ukrainian drone strikes that have been hitting deep inside Russia. Last week, it was reported that Vladimir Putin’s approval rating among the general public had dropped for the seventh consecutive week (Reuters)Volodymyr Zelensky has been unequivocal about the fact that Ukraine’s “victory plan” entails hitting targets deep within Russia, and his country’s technological and military capabilities are advancing rapidly. His strategy will be helped by a new €90bn loan from the EU, recently released after Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban was ousted from office, unblocking the funds. For Russia, a country that prides itself on its demonstrations of military might, the lack of fanfare at the parade was out of character. This year, Putin remains more paranoid and isolated than ever before. Security has been tightened across the capital of Moscow, with unprecedented military presence including checkpoints, snipers and machine-gun crews. It comes amid a leaked European intelligence report claiming that Putin’s increasing paranoia over his personal safety has led him to spend weeks in underground bunkers, screening staff and banning cell phones for personal cooks and bodyguards. On top of that, internet shutdowns have been reported across the country, and social media channels have been replaced by the state’s own intelligence-monitored versions. “Within the wider context, it shouldn’t come as a surprise,” says Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House.“That’s how dictators usually end up feeling when they feel like power is slipping away. There is an interesting dynamic there, with the slipping image of Russia as a military superpower and the slipping image of Putin as a strong man.”Troops attend a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade at the Dvortsovaya (Palace) Square in St Petersburg (AP)She says this is also reflected in Putin’s drop in opinion polls, even those which have been traditionally pro-Kremlin, as the economic effects of sanctions and general fatigue with the war take hold. “These are signs that he’s kind of losing his grasp,” she explains. Last week, it was reported that his approval rating among the general public had dropped for the seventh consecutive week, according to Russian state-owned polling institution All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM). While Putin’s paranoia is not new – he is widely known to be a germaphobe who hunkered down hard following the Covid pandemic, taking some extreme measures to avoid catching the illness – there have been a number of events in recent months that are believed to have contributed to his sense of vulnerability.In December 2025, the head of the general staff’s operational training directorate, Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, was killed after a bomb planted under his car detonated as he drove out of a Moscow car park at around 7am in the morning. The 56-year-old was rushed to hospital with multiple shrapnel wounds, severe leg injuries, a facial fracture and concussion, but did not survive. Seven other vehicles were reported to be damaged in the blast. In February this year, Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev was shot and injured in an alleged assassination attempt. Several other senior officials have been killed since Russia launched its invasion in 2022. Last year, unverified claims surfaced that Ukraine had attempted to target the Russian president at his personal residence in the Novgorod region. US intelligence found the claims not to be true, and Kyiv denied the allegations.The damaged Kia Sorento lies at the scene where Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian General Staff’s army operational training directorate, was killed last December (Reuters)But Putin does not want to be seen as weak – and the need to appear powerful is compounded by the 9 May celebrations, which Barbieri says is crucial to Russia’s understanding of itself as a country. “It has been a hallmark of Russia’s identity-building and nation-building processes under Putin, and underlying this image is always this sense that they liberated Europe from fascism, that they’re unbeatable and always on the right side of history.“He had a kind of distorted understanding of the reality on the ground, but inevitably, he feels pressure to try and sell domestically an image of victory.”But cracks are widening in the perception of Putin’s administration as a unified bloc, with elite bureaucrats and middle-class businesspeople growing uneasy with restrictions and the economic effects of the war, which continues to take up 70 per cent of Putin’s time and has become his “obsession”. Barbieri explains that within the Russian elite, there are figures such as Sergey Kiriyenko who are more akin to bureaucrats, who are increasingly concerned “that the current total investment in the war effort is creating a number of economic problems for the country”. Then there is the security and military bloc, which is more passionate about the country’s war aims but has also become increasingly critical, including the Siloviki (”men of force” that include Russian officials from security, military, and law enforcement agencies such as the FSB, defence ministry and National Guard) as well as Z-bloggers. Putin thought the war would be over in weeks, and the fact that it has continued for nearly half a decade is a shock to him and the establishment, says Barbieri. Sarvarov was killed after a bomb planted under his car detonated as he drove out of a car park (AP)“As it has lasted longer, it has started to become more difficult to isolate the country from information about casualties and the impact of sanctions. They’re trying to control the narrative, but it’s becoming harder to isolate the population from a conversation about the actual failures.”Internet outages have affected businesses, leaving customers unable to contact their clients, causing more frustration. Russians are also feeling shaken by military strikes that have hit them hundreds of miles beyond their border. On Friday, Mr Zelensky said a Ukrainian drone strike hit one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Yaroslavl, a city situated more than 700km from its border. Despite these attacks, Russia was determined to continue with the Victory Day commemorations. “It's quite unusual for a country to be having these parades,” says Christina Hayward at the Institute for the Study of War. “Ukraine does not have these kind of events, and they haven't for years because of the risk of Russian strikes attacking concentrations of people.“It's interesting to see that Russia is now feeling that same wartime fear. It's showing the effect that the increased Ukrainian strikes are having on Russian planning and that they aren’t confident in their ability to have enough air defences to protect these events should they choose to have them.”Despite Putin’s fear of being attacked, experts say that Russia’s history shows a far more sobering and terrifying reality. “Regime consolidation has put in place an authoritarian system that operates like a police state,” she says. “Russia’s history shows that if it were changed, it would most likely be through a violent and sudden way rather than a gradual decline.“The cracks within the regime are widening, but the big question now is what is going to happen. Once these cracks become too wide to be covered, historically, change in Russia has always happened suddenly and violently. Among the expert community, the expectation is that if such a change were to happen, most likely it’s going to come from inside.”