How much further does this Teflon market have to go? Here's what traders say

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The S&P 500

brushed off Thursday headlines about the U.S. and Iran trading blows in the Strait of Hormuz and continued marching higher in Friday trading, crossing 7,400 for the first time. Prediction market traders think there’s more fuel left in the tank.

While the benchmark is already up more than 16% from its March 30 lows, traders on Kalshi think the broad index has a 59% chance of breaching 8,000 this year. That’s an 8% gain from current trading levels, and the index only crossed 7,000 for the first time in January.

It’s not just traders on prediction markets getting more bullish. RBC hiked its 12-month-forward price target for the index to 7,900 in a Friday note. Head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote that the average and median of the five models used by the bank to calculate its estimate is 8,100 — implying there may be even upside to her forecast.

How much further does this Teflon market have to go? Here's what traders say

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