Labour’s losses may not be as big as feared, and Reform’s share of seats suggests support may have peaked
Only a third of councils in England that held elections had their votes counted overnight, with the rest starting on Friday morning. Hugely symbolic results in Scotland and Wales are also still to come. But despite the early stage, some trends are already starting to emerge for the parties …
Labour’s results are bad, but perhaps not as disastrous as might have been expected. So far, the party has lost swathes of seats across its traditional heartlands –and lost control of councils including Hartlepool, Tameside, Redditch and Tamworth – to the Reform surge.
Several big Labour beasts, including Angela Rayner in Tameside and Lisa Nandy in Wigan, will be worried by the results, which will give succour to those inside Labour who argue the real threat lies on the party’s right (even though those seats were lost because Labour voters switched to progressive parties).
But the elections experts John Curtice and Michael Thrasher have predicted that if losses continue at the same rate, Labour could lose just over 1,200 of the 2,500 seats it is defending. A serious downplaying of expectations over the past few weeks means Labour politicians will be relieved to lose anything south of 1,500.
