Windfall profits could lock in Trump-era political wins for the industry and slow clean-energy transition
The billions in profits big oil is reaping due to the Iran war may stymie the energy transition, experts and advocates fear, incentivizing oil and gas expansion and boosting the sector’s funds for political lobbying.
“Windfall profits from Trump’s war will allow big oil to build a wall of money around its Trump-era political victories,” said Lukas Shankar-Ross, a deputy director at green group Friends of the Earth.
The deadly conflict in Iran has created a historic energy shock due to attacks on fossil fuel facilities and the blockage of the crucial trade vessel the strait of Hormuz. Amid the chaos, energy prices – and oil companies’ earnings – have soared.
ConocoPhillips last week reported $2.3bn in profits for the first three months of 2026, up 84% from before the war began. Meanwhile, top petroleum refiner Valero Energy announced quarterly profits of $1.2bn, beating estimates. Liberty Energy, founded and formerly run by Donald Trump’s energy secretary Chris Wright, saw quarterly earnings of $10m, up 32% from before the war began. BP, meanwhile, said it had seen “exceptional” performance, more than doubling its profits during the year’s first quarter, while Shell on Thursday also reported its first-quarter profits were stronger than expected.
