The conflict and military escalation in West Asia threatens to push 2.5 million people in India into poverty and the country is projected to experience some loss in its human development progress, according to estimates and projections by the United Nations.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in a report titled ‘Military Escalation In The Middle East: Human Development Impacts Across Asia And The Pacific’ noted that the conflict is “widening human development pressures across Asia and the Pacific. Through higher fuel, freight, and input costs, the shock is diminishing household purchasing power, raising food insecurity, straining public budgets, and weakening livelihoods.” The preliminary assessment, issued on Tuesday (April 14, 2026), estimates that globally 8.8 million people are at risk of falling into poverty and the West Asia military escalation could cost Asia-Pacific up to $299 billion.
The fallout of the crisis in West Asia on India’s economy
“In India, poverty is expected to rise from around 4,00,000 to 2.5 million,” the report said. It added that the number of people pushed into poverty in the world as a result of the conflict rises from approximately 1.9 million to nearly 8.8 million across scenarios, with South Asia accounting for the largest share, ranging from about 1.7 million to more than eight million, reflecting both the sub-region’s population size and its higher exposure to income and price shocks.
