WASHINGTON — The economic pain at home and civilian death in the Middle East wrought by President Donald Trump’s war on Iran could hit new levels in the coming days if he follows through on an oft-repeated threat to destroy Iran’s entire electrical infrastructure.
Trump says an attack, which would almost certainly be a war crime, will come if Iran does not agree to a “deal” by Tuesday night. That country’s leaders will likely hit back in kind against Gulf states that are helping the United States, according to military and Iran experts.
“Iran’s only retaliatory capability is to target America’s immediate allies in the Gulf, and Israel, if possible,” said Ray Takeyh with the Council on Foreign Relations.
Iran has since the war began struck military targets used by U.S. forces in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. It has also targeted civilian infrastructure, but attacks on its own civilian infrastructure are likely to prompt further escalation. One especially life-threatening possibility is attacks on the Gulf states’ water desalination plants, which are even more critical to those predominantly desert countries than the ones in Iran.
“Iran has already demonstrated both its willingness and ability to retaliate in kind should the U.S. and Israel escalate strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure,” said Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Bahrain and the UAE are among the likely countries to be hit. Israeli targets may prove more challenging, but Iran will certainly attempt to lash out at Israel as well.”
