The age of the mega-IPO is upon us and, for venture capital, it could create as many problems as it solves.
As rumors swirl that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic may hit the public markets in 2026, this trio would mark the three biggest venture-backed IPOs of all time. PitchBook, in a note published this week, estimated that this could “conceivably create more value than all VC-backed IPOs since 2000 have collectively.”
Consider the numbers: U.S. venture-backed IPOs raised $62.1 billion in 2021, a record year. Now look at SpaceX alone. The company, started as an Elon Musk moonshot in 2002, is reportedly looking to rake in $50 billion on its own. SpaceX’s valuation is reported to be $1.5 trillion, and for investors who backed the company in its 2023 round (then valuing the company at $137 billion), PitchBook estimates those investors are due a stunning 10x return. (In that group, there are nearly 50 investors, including Andreessen Horowitz.)
Then there’s OpenAI and Anthropic. If one or both of these companies go public, it would mean a cascade of much-needed returns for U.S. venture capital, a sector starved for liquidity for half a decade.
However, some words of caution: First, these prospective massive liquidity events will be relatively concentrated, a reflection of the lopsided AI market. SpaceX is so big that there will be many investor winners—but even so, there are only so many. And it’s not like the rumored pipeline beyond the biggest names is exactly robust right now, though Strava, Cerebras, Kraken, Motive, and Discord are all in the reported IPO mix.
