The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, while adjusting its projections for the economy and the future path of monetary policy. In addition, Chair Jerome Powell covered a variety of topics in his post-meeting news conference.
Here are the five top takeaways:
While no one expected the Fed to cut — much less hike — at this meeting, the market always looks for clues about what’s next. Neither the post-meeting statement, the update on economic projections, nor Powell’s news conference provided much in that regard. The statement saw only minor tweaks, the “dot plot” saw a modest dovish shift, and Powell used some form of “uncertain” more than half a dozen times.
Forecasting the future and modeling policy at a time when the U.S. is at war with Iran is nearly impossible, Powell said. He faced repeated questions about the oil shock, and mostly emphasized how much it has muddied the waters for the Fed. “The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows,” he said. “The economic effects could be bigger, they could be smaller, they could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don’t know.”
The dot plot still pointed to one more cut this year and another next year. But the grid looked more like a maze than a consensus, underlining just how little underlying consensus exists on the Federal Open Market Committee. For instance: In 2027, one official sees a hike, three see no change from the current level, four expect another cut, six see two more cuts, three forecast three cuts, one official sees four cuts, and a final participant — presumably Governor Stephen Miran — is at five.
