The spike in oil prices was not a good look politically or economically for President Donald Trump after the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran, but the military campaign is going well, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Crude eased somewhat on Monday on signs that more tankers are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has virtually locked up after hitting commercial ships. That comes as Iran’s top source of leverage is fading.
“The war in Iran is currently in a phase in which the military trajectory is relatively positive: The United States is steadily destroying Iran’s ability to use its most essential tool in the war—drone and missile attacks—which in turn underpin the entire Iranian strategy,” ISW said in a report Sunday.
While Iran has inflicted significant damage to U.S. installations in the region and allied infrastructure, the pace of its attacks is plunging and hasn’t come close to its original plan for fighting off an existential threat to the regime with overwhelming retaliation, it pointed out.
For example, drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates collapsed from 332 on the second day of the war to just six on Sunday. Ballistic missile attacks fell from a peak of 137 on the first day to four yesterday.
