Home sales made a small gain to start the year, but higher mortgage rates now could throw cold water on the spring season.

Existing home sales in February rose 1.7% from January to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.09 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 1.4% from February of last year.

This count represents closed sales, so deals were likely inked in December and January, when mortgage rates fell a bit and stayed solidly in a low range near 6% on the 30-year-fixed mortgage. Rates were about a full percentage point higher the year before.

“Despite the modest gain in home sales, actual housing demand remains muted relative to wage growth and job gains,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said in a release. “Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by almost four percentage points. Mortgage rates are also measurably lower compared to a year ago.”

Yun also noted that there are more than 6 million more jobs now than there were in 2019, yet home sales per year are down by 1 million.