The Iran war has shone a light on what prediction markets regard as unacceptable subjects for betting, as they faced backlash when users placed hundreds of millions of wagers on everything from missile strikes to regime change.
Polymarket last week archived markets that had allowed bets on the timing of a nuclear detonation, after the contracts attracted hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Most of the contracts fell under a market titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?” that allowed users to wager on whether the event would occur by a certain date, according to webpages saved in the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.
The removal of nuclear-related markets came hours after the company reportedly posted — and later deleted — odds on X showing roughly a 22% probability of a detonation by year-end.
The bets drew outcry online and come as some makers propose tighter regulations and oversight of the fast-growing prediction industry, which allows users to bet on the outcomes of a wide range of events.
