With much of the world’s oil supplies out of action, Russia could step in to meet demand in China and India
A prolonged energy crisis triggered by the widening war in the Middle East could offer an economic lifeline to Russia’s war machine at a moment when it was beginning to show signs of strain.
The sharp weakening and possible collapse of the regime in Iran would deprive the Kremlin of one of its closest regional partners. But that setback could be outweighed by an economic windfall if disruption pushes buyers toward Russian energy, alongside a possible slowdown in western arms supplies to Ukraine.
“When a good fifth of global oil supply and roughly a quarter of seaborne trade is effectively locked up, that’s a boon for Russia,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and leading expert on Russia’s energy sector.
Brent crude rose more than 7% on Tuesday to above $80 a barrel, adding to Monday’s 7.2% jump, after a halt to shipping in the strait of Hormuz followed by Iranian missile and drone strikes on regional infrastructure.
