https://arab.news/pqvmk

The world is holding its breath about the possibility of a US military attack on Iran. As the US builds up the largest military force of warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades while it sits and negotiates with the Iranian regime, the Lebanese are once again building a multitude of scenarios regarding what might happen. But there is one certainty: Hezbollah will not be able to participate meaningfully, if at all.

If there were any doubts, Israel is erasing them. It has intensified its airstrikes, particularly against the Iranian proxy’s missile capacity. One attack last week killed eight Hezbollah members, including senior commander Hussein Mohammed Yaghi. These operations are aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities. Since the ceasefire came into effect in November 2024, Israel says it has destroyed 70 percent to 80 percent of Hezbollah’s rocket fire capacity and more than 400 Hezbollah and allied operatives have been killed. The group is still believed to be storing thousands of missiles with various range capabilities. Tel Aviv has also targeted Hamas command centers in the Ain El-Hilweh refugee camp.

I doubt that relations between Hezbollah and its masters in Tehran are peachy today. Beyond precision strikes built on credible intelligence, there is no doubt that Israel has induced doubt on both sides of the relationship. The absolute, blind obedience and alignment that led Hezbollah fighters to Syria and to launch attacks that destroyed Lebanon are in disarray. Just as drops of water break the rock over time, Israel has broken this iron-clad commitment.