Little sign Moscow’s ability to continue waging war for a fifth year is diminished, analysis suggests
Europe live – latest updates
Russia will be able to sustain its invasion of Ukraine throughout 2026 even allowing for emerging economic and manpower pressures, while its missile and drone threat to Europe is growing, according to a leading military thinktank.
Bastian Giegerich, the director general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there was “little indication” that “Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine for a fifth year is diminished”.
The thinktank reported that the Kremlin spent at least $186bn (£138bn) on defence in 2025, an increase of 3% in real terms, amounting to 7.3% of the country’s GDP – more than double the proportion spent by the US and about three times the level of the UK.
