Weakened food security could tip into unrest after a cyber-attack, extreme weather or conflict, analysis finds
One shock could spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK, according to dozens of the country’s top food experts, because chronic issues have left the food system a “tinderbox”.
The group first identified a series of issues that are making access to food vulnerable in the UK, including the climate crisis, low incomes, poor farming policy and fragile just-in-time supply chains. These have left the UK dangerously exposed, the researchers said.
They then analysed the shocks that could tip this vulnerable system into a full-blown food crisis, with major extreme weather events, cyber-attacks or international conflicts ranked top. These shocks would hit supply chains and push up food prices, which could lead to increased social tension and hidden market sales of unsafe food and, in the worst-case scenario, civil unrest or riots.
A large majority of the experts – 80% – said large-scale violence caused by a food crisis was possible in the next 50 years, with 40% saying it could occur within the next decade, according to a related analysis published in 2023. The scenario considered was more than 30,000 people suffering violent injury over the course of a year owing to food protests or riots.
