The Trump administration’s embargo on Cuba—effectively cutting off 75% of the Communist-ruled island’s crude oil supplies—is quickly pushing Havana leadership to a point of no return amid escalating fuel shortages and frequent blackouts.
Some six weeks after the U.S. violently ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and with the U.S. having seized control of that country’s oil production, geopolitical and energy analysts said the next “domino” in Cuba is close to toppling under economic pressure unless a diplomatic resolution is reached. The evolving situation could include potential conflict with Russia, which is aiming to supply Cuba with oil tanker shipments. While a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis 64 years later is highly unlikely, the U.S. could end up seizing Russian tankers, something that has already occurred with ships en route to Venezuela. Such moves would escalate already heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia, said Skip York, a global energy expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
“The fuel situation in Cuba will get pretty dire pretty fast. That’s going to put tremendous pressure on the government because energy—whether it’s oil or electricity—is the lifeblood of any country,” York said.
