Top Democratic operatives are warning donors and elected officials the path to pass a voter referendum giving the party a likely 10-1 advantage in congressional seats in Virginia is narrower than many think, arguing the party does not have the same advantages it did when a similar referendum romped to victory in California last November.
The Old Dominion is simply less Democratic than California. The election is also at an odder time: April 21 instead of Election Day. While California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was desperate to pass Proposition 50 to prove his bona fides to 2028 primary voters, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) has been only passively supportive of the efforts there.
And Democrats feel the Republican forces lining up against the referendum are more organized — and more closely tied to President Donald Trump’s political operation — than a California campaign that ran out of cash months early and led to bitter infighting.
While Democrats still think voters are more likely than not to approve the 10-1 maps in the April 21 referendum, the chances of repeating the 64% margin that “yes” forces reached in California are slim, and ensuring victory could be costly.
“This is going to be a messaging battle. People are looking for a way to push back on Trump, and this gives them a chance to do so,” said Jared Leopold, a former Democratic Governors’ Association official with extensive experience in the state. “But this isn’t California. Virginia is a blue-tinted swing state, not a true blue state. And Republicans have a more recent record of success here.”
