New analysis of U.S. Census data shows that states across the U.S. where key midterm elections will take place this year paid over $134 billion in tariffs in the period since President Donald Trump began implementing widespread trade duties in March 2025 through last November. In all, the U.S. Census data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide showed a total of $199 billion in tariffs paid by states during that time period.
Trump has called affordability a “Democratic hoax,” and in recent testimony before Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs “do not cause inflation.”
But Trump’s tariffs and affordability are expected to be factors in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data from the American consumer and pricing data show that the affordability issues are real and many voters have soured on the economy. A January poll from The New York Times and Siena University found that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs.
“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the We Pay the Tariffs small business coalition and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions in taxes in the states that will determine the 2026 elections. He just doesn’t want to,” Anthony said.
