It's only six weeks since a smiling Sir Keir Starmer told us: "I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027" in his interview to mark the start of the year.
The bald truth now? It is hard to find anyone in Labour who convincingly agrees.
The prime minister is not responsible for Peter Mandelson's behaviour. But it was his decision to take a chance on him. Being furious now doesn't erase the initial choice, and each seedy email makes it seem a bigger and bigger mistake.
Yes, MPs are shocked and angry with Peter Mandelson. But they are also angry with the prime minister.
The real problem for Keir Starmer is that the fury this week is both a proxy, and a prompt, for stoking months of simmering unhappiness about the government. And it's spread far beyond the chorus of usual critics, making the PM's vow to be in the chair this time next year seem like a lifetime ago.
