A factory in Lanester, France, May 31, 2025. FRED TANNEAU/AFP
France has made a slight course correction, but is still falling short of what is needed to stay on track. Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease by 1.6% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 363 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, according to an estimate published on Tuesday, January 13, by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (Citepa). While this figure represents a modest improvement from the previous forecast (−0.8%), the country remains far off course: France must cut its emissions by 4.6% annually to meet its 2030 climate targets, meaning reductions would need to happen three times as quickly.
This modest decline comes when environmental policies and budgets have continued to be scaled back in recent months. It could signal "a slowdown in the momentum observed in recent years," warned Citepa, which will deliver its final annual assessment in April. After steep drops in 2022 and 2023 (−3.9% and −6.8%), carbon emissions were reduced by only 1.8% in 2024, prompting the High Council on Climate to call for a "collective wake-up call." In 2025, emission reductions accelerated in the third quarter (−3.7%), but this was not enough to offset the very slight decrease in the first half of the year (−0.8%).
