Venezuela’s stock market has not only shrugged off the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, it has surged to a record high as investors bet that the battered economy could finally see a turnaround.
The country’s benchmark Indice Bursatil de Capitalizacion, or IBC, has gained more than 130% since the U.S. operation on Jan. 3.
The rally reflects optimism that Venezuela’s economy could stabilize after years of mismanagement, sanctions and defaults, with expectations growing that a reconfigured government may attract capital, revive oil output and normalize relations with the United States, analysts said.
And investors are trying to get in on the action. U.S. ETF issuer Teucrium on Friday applied to the Securities and Exchange Commission to create what would reportedly be the first exchange-traded fund focused on companies with exposure to Venezuela.
“In what is a fluid environment, we currently believe that Venezuela is more likely to experience regime continuity with behavioral realignment, rather than an outright democratic transition or system collapse,” BMI said in a note. “A pliant Venezuela would allow the U.S. to reinforce its regional hegemony, secure access to the oil sector on very favorable terms.”
