2025 saw some big names, like Circle, go public to rousing success. On the M&A side, blockbuster deals like Google’s $32 billion Wiz acquisition made headlines.
But the hoped-for rising tide of exits did not come to lift all boats. Some IPOs, like Navan, met with more muted reception. And overall IPO activity, while up from recent lows, remains below historical levels.
As 2026 gets underway, the fundamental circumstances that influence private market exits are largely the same: Private companies are bigger than ever by valuation, but they also have more liquidity levers than ever to pull without needing to tap the public markets. But that privilege is reserved for the very best of breed.
Further down the private company food chain, things are more complicated. Even for some promising AI startups, an acquihire to a giant is proving far more appealing than going at it alone. Which means acquisitions and other creative variations of dealmaking are also very much in play.
Here’s how Term Sheet readers are looking at the exit landscape in 2026, and what they’re predicting for IPOs and M&A.
