In a season defined by chaos and turnarounds, the award should go not to surprise, but to the coach who solved the hardest problems

The NFL’s Coach of the Year award is simple. It typically serves as a mea culpa. We’re sorry our preseason predictions about your team were wrong.

In theory, it’s a straight line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it’s a yearly argument about expectations and whether we’re rewarding actual coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But this year’s race is a little different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It’s been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans all rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in a chaotic, fun year, he’s up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here’s how the ballot should shake out.