The continent’s problems are not caused by immigration or cultural politics but by economic and technological decline
onald Trump’s new national security strategy offers a misguided assessment of Europe, long regarded as the US’s most reliable ally. Unrestrained immigration and other policies derided by administration officials as “woke”, it warns, could lead to “civilisational erasure” within a few decades.
That argument rests on a fundamental misreading of Europe’s current predicament. While the EU does face an existential threat, it has little to do with immigration or cultural politics. In fact, the share of foreign-born residents in the US is slightly higher than in Europe.
The real threat facing Europe lies in its own economic and technological backwardness. Between 2008 and 2023, GDP rose by 87% in the US, compared with just 13.5% in the EU. Over the same period, the EU’s GDP per capita fell from 76.5% of the US level to 50%. Even the poorest US state – Mississippi – has a higher per capita income than that of several major European economies, including France, Italy and the EU average.
This widening economic gap cannot be explained by demographics. Instead, it reflects stronger productivity growth in the US, largely owing to technological innovation and higher total factor productivity. Today, roughly half of the world’s 50 largest technology firms are American, while only four are European. Over the past five decades, 241 US firms have grown from startups into companies with market capitalisations of at least $10bn (£7.4bn), compared with just 14 in Europe.
