Americans expecting a big promotion or wage increase next year may have just had their hopes dashed, according to a Mercer survey.
On average, employers plan to hold base salary increases for merit at 3.2%, and total increases at 3.5%, which encompasses all salary increases, including for merit, promotions, cost-of-living, and other adjustments, in 2026, said Mercer’s survey of more than 1,000 firms questioned in late October. That’s the same as the actual increases employers reported in 2025 and well below post-pandemic years when increases reached as high as 3.8%, the human resources consultant said.
Coupled with inflation still around 3%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, most Americans likely won’t see a step up in their lifestyles, experts said.
“Real hourly wage growth in production and non-supervisory occupations has stagnated over the past two years and is now increasing at a slower pace as higher rates of inflation erode the purchasing power of paychecks,” said RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. “We take the affordability crisis, which is the primary cause of historically weak consumer confidence, seriously.”
Even highly skilled workers may fall prey to sluggish pay increases, Mercer’s survey showed.
