ISLAMABAD: Most financial market participants expect Pakistan’s central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11% when it meets on December 15, according to a new survey by brokerage Topline Securities.
Pakistan’s State Bank has held rates steady since May and maintained the same stance in October, its fourth consecutive pause, after recent floods had a milder-than-expected impact on crops and inflation. The central bank said earlier that the effects of previous interest rate cuts were still filtering through the economy, meaning businesses and consumers were still adjusting to cheaper borrowing. Because of that, the bank felt it was better to keep policy steady for now instead of cutting rates again.
The latest Topline poll reflects that sentiment, with investors largely expecting the bank to hold until inflation pressures ease more decisively. Pakistan has reduced rates sharply over the past 18 months — from a peak of 22% in 2024 to 11% at present — but policymakers have warned that price risks could rise again as imports pick up and agriculture recovers.
Topline said 70% of market participants expect no change, while 30% foresee a cut of 25–100 basis points. No respondents expect an increase despite one member of the SBP board having voted for a rate hike during the September meeting, according to published minutes.
