Investors should look to the data, rather than the Fed, for guidance
Anyone making their own 2026 forecasts will need to employ more guesswork than usual
Related reading
There is method in the market’s madness
But it relies on a host of rosy assumptions going in investors’ favour
2026 predictions, part two
Just a few rate cuts, and cyclicals lead
The Fed’s delicate balancing act over liquidity
Optimism and greed complicate the central bank’s decisions during market disruptions
Investors need to rethink the ‘factor’ approach
Portfolio management should be based more on themes such as innovation
Investors will have to wait until new year for clear data on US economy
Official figures delayed by government shutdown will provide little clarity on the outlook for interest rates
Data: you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone
To decide whether official statistics are useful, look at what happens when they disappear