In 2025, we whiffed. You would have been wise to bet the anti-portfolio. While we (always 😂) think some of our predictions may still come true, an honest grading says we were Jets/Mets-like: just two out of 10.
We nailed more payor CEOs losing their jobs (Andrew Witty and Lois Quam) and cell therapy coming back into fashion (four acquisitions, notably Capstan by Abbvie at $2.1B). Otherwise, we were spectacularly poor. We were too skeptical about how long AI point solutions would remain healthcare investor darlings, propping up seemingly nonsensical businesses, and there was only one “down” health tech IPO, Hinge, that has done nicely since. We expected Medicare Advantage (MA) to come roaring back in 2025 but the Trump team has not put their thumb on the scales. We are surprised (and not sure we agree) that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is forecasting MA to shrink in 2026 by 1 million members. We also expected to see risk adjustment and “Stars” eased and more generous premium increases.
Big companies surprised us by what they did and didn’t do. Namely, HCSC’s willingness to incinerate a ton of money by acquiring Cigna’s MA book and Illumina, down 40% in 2025, has not been acquired (though nice Q3 earnings bounce). We were also surprised Apple did not launch glucose sensing with WatchOS 26, despite our recurring prediction that Big Tech will underdeliver in healthcare.
