AI is not the main reason most people are losing their jobs right now; weak demand, economic headwinds and skills mismatches are doing more of the damage, according to a the latest quarterly outlook from ManpowerGroup, one of the largest staffing agencies in the world. While automation and AI are surely reshaping job descriptions and long‑term hiring plans, the first-quarter 2026 employment outlook survey suggests workers without the right mix of technical and human skills are far more exposed than those whose capabilities match what employers say they need.
Since 1962, ManPower claims its Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in size, scope and longevity, and one of the most trusted indicators of labor market trends in the world. Looking ahead to the turn of the year, the survey says employers around the globe still plan to hire, but at a slower pace and with fewer additions to headcount than earlier in the pandemic recovery.
Globally, 40% of organizations expect to increase staffing in the first quarter and another 40% plan to keep headcount unchanged, yet the typical company now anticipates adding only eight workers, down steadily from mid‑2025 levels. Large enterprises with 5,000 or more employees have cut their planned hiring roughly in half since the second quarter of 2025, underscoring just how much large employers are tightening belts even as they keep recruiting in priority areas.
