Analysts may not have necessarily digested this week’s lackluster labor data with glee—but it sure didn’t dampen their spirits either. Wall Street is hoping for a Christmas miracle with a final interest rate cut from the Fed, bringing the base rate down to 3.5 to 3.75%, and recent jobs reports may just have sealed the deal.
Investors’ expectations for a cut have been on a rollercoaster in the final month of the year. Per CME’s FedWatch barometer, the likelihood of a cut only a matter of weeks ago was just 50%; it now sits just shy of 90%.
The Fed and the market are likely in the same boat: Analysts don’t know if the Fed is going to cut, because the Fed probably doesn’t know itself. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are wrangling with conflicting pressures on their mandate: Inflation is at 3%, persistently above their 2% target, and now solidly in the “sticky” category.
On the other hand, the labor market is on a knife-edge. The unemployment rate has held relatively steady at around 4% thanks to a shrinking pool of talent, prompted by Trump’s immigration policy and a wave of retirees. However, job openings are fading fast, suggesting a moderate uptick in layoffs could tip the scales with more weight than usual.
