“Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday. “Either loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner,” he added, referring to the 28-point peace plan presented to Kyiv by the Trump administration. U.S. President Donald Trump, whose team drafted the proposal in consultation with Russian officials, says he expects a response from Ukraine by Thanksgiving (Nov. 26). Mr. Zelenskyy remains cautious, at least publicly, saying that he would continue to work “calmly” with the U.S.
The Trump plan addresses both Russia’s security concerns and Ukraine’s demand for security guarantees, but it also acknowledges the facts on the ground which favour Moscow. Russia now controls more than 20% of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory. Besides Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula which Russia annexed through a referendum in February 2014, Moscow has annexed four more Ukrainian oblasts — Donetsk, Luhansk (which make up the Donbas region), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Of these four, Russia currently controls more than 80% of Donbas, and more than half of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukraine had recently agreed to freeze the war along the current frontline, but Russia always insisted that peace should come with a comprehensive agreement addressing “the root causes” of the conflict. Russia wanted recognition for the territories it has captured, sanctions to be removed and commitment from Ukraine and the West that Kyiv would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
