If the White House handing out $2,000 checks to all U.S. citizens sounded too good to be true, it just might be. At least, that’s now the sentiment among bettors.
Earlier this month, President Trump made an official promise of a “dividend” payable to all Americans. Posting on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns, the president wrote that tariff opponents were “fools” and added: “record investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place.” He added: “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
Since then, excitement around the project has dimmed. According to speculators betting on the odds market site Kalshi, there’s now just a 2% chance that Americans will receive such a check anytime soon. These odds have dropped considerably from the week following Trump’s announcement, when the market priced a more than 13% likelihood of the rebates being paid out.
Indeed, the odds tracker isn’t even assuming the promise of a $2,000 check—it’s based on the odds of a million Americans being given notice of an $1,000 check, and the verified details being reported (not the payouts completed) by January 1.
Over at Polymarket, the crypto-based probability trading platform, the odds of Americans receiving a check before December 31 have fallen to just 1%, down from 50% on November 15.
