If you’ve been on social media recently, you might have stumbled upon some headlines claiming that there’s been a steep decline in people who identify as trans across the country. Specifically, these headlines reference two specific studies that some have been using to bolster a longstanding hypothesis: that fewer young people are identifying as transgender. The message, if you read between the lines, is that transness was just a fad pushed by liberals, and that the end of “woke” has also meant the end of trans people.
At first, I approached these studies with genuine curiosity, given that there are several reasons why fewer people might be openly identifying as trans now than just a couple of years ago. Namely, the fact that the government has made life for trans Americans extremely difficult and sometimes even dangerous. But when I took some time to look through the studies, I quickly found some serious limitations — and I think they might be worth nipping the “Transness is fading” narrative in the bud.
The first analysis that’s been referenced ad nauseam was conducted by “liberal national conservative” professor Eric Kaufmann, per Vox. According to the holy internet, there are more than a few reasons I’d examine his “research” with a discerning eye. In his recent report, entitled “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans,” he claims that trans identity “peaked” in 2023 and then dramatically dropped from 7% to 4% of university students. The other data many are citing came from Tufts University’s Cooperative Election Study, which found a roughly two-point drop in people who identify as trans.
