Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to total between 265,000 and 365,000 roles this year, the lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years, the National Retail Federation said Thursday.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay said on the retail trade group’s conference call on that those hiring expectations “reflect the softening and slowing labor market.” It’s a significant drop from a year ago, when retailers hired 442,000 seasonal workers, the retail trade group said.
Some companies may have hired seasonal workers early to support sales events in October, but retailers have largely tried to limit their spending as they manage higher costs from tariffs, NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said.
The major industry group’s prediction offers the latest glimpse into the jobs market as the record government shutdown stretches on and leads to fewer government reports on economic data, such as unemployment and inflation. That’s caused companies and economists to rely on data from private companies or organizations instead.
Earlier Thursday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas said layoff announcements soared in October to 153,074, a 183% jump from September and 175% surge from the same month a year ago. That marked the highest level for any October since 2003, and 2025 has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.
