Government plans include more short sentences being suspended and earlier releases from jail

Government plans to radically reform sentencing will lead to an increase in crime by as much as 6% in a single year, according to police chiefs.

The reforms, which cover England and Wales, involve a presumption against short sentences of a year or less, with community sentences used instead, and those jailed being released earlier than currently the case.

The hope, which policing bosses said they share, is that offenders will experience greater efforts at rehabilitation, and in the medium to long term the changes will cut offending.

But Jason Devonport, the National Police Chiefs’ Council lead for criminal justice reform, warned of an increase in recorded crime of 4 to 6% across England and Wales in the first year after the changes were enacted.