Pakistan inflation to clock in at over 5% in Oct led by higher food prices — report

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to reach 5.25–5.75% in October year on year, a market research firm said on Tuesday.

This is in comparison with 5.61% inflation in Sept. 2025 and 7.17% in Oct. 2024, according to Karachi-based Topline Securities. On a month-on-month basis, inflation for Oct. 2025 is projected at +1.1 percent.

“Food segment is expected to show increase of 1.21% MoM,” the brokerage and research firm said on Tuesday. “The resurgence in food inflation is primarily on the back of supply side effect on food products due to floods and closure of Afghan Border in the country.”

The frontier was closed after days of cross-border strikes and skirmishes between the two countries, which began on Oct. 11, over a surge in militancy in Pakistan’s western regions that border Afghanistan.

Key contributors to food inflation are tomatoes (+27 percent), fresh vegetables (+25 percent), and onions (+10 percent), though fresh fruit and chicken are down 10% and 25 percent, respectively, according to the report.