The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a quarter point at its meeting this week and could cut at the next two meetings as well, according to the October CNBC Fed Survey.
But there were concerns among the 38 survey respondents, who include economists, strategists and fund managers, about the lack of data from the shutdown, an artificial intelligence bubble, still-high inflation and whether politics is playing a role in the Fed’s decisions.
“Flying in a blizzard with a blindfold on and no backup instrumentation isn’t a great place for monetary policy,” said Guy Lebas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “It’s even worse when there are mountains in the area.”
While 92% of respondents believe the Fed will cut at this meeting, only 66% believe it should, with a 38% minority opposing a rate cut.
“Politics rather than financial conditions are clearly influencing the Fed’s rate decisions,” said Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. “Financial conditions are near historically easy, GDP is tracking 3.5-4%, financial assets are ripping, and inflation remains well above the Fed’s target. In more normal times, there is no way the Fed would be cutting rates.”
