Plaid Cymru’s byelection victory signals a seismic shift in Welsh politics that will rattle Westminster
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If anyone inside No 10 allowed themselves a sigh of relief at Reform UK’s advance being stymied in the Caerphilly byelection, they would then have heard the warning from Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru’s winning candidate: “You are on your way out after 100-plus years.”
Labour in Wales might or might not be “a dying beast”, as Whittle argued, but this one-off Senedd race illustrated how it was on course to lose its grip on Welsh politics in May, with potentially wider implications for Keir Starmer and his party.
The idea that the full Senedd elections will result in Labour being supplanted by Plaid and Reform has long been heralded by polling, but here it was in stark voting figures: a Labour share of 46% when the seat was previously contested in 2021, now down to 11%; a consistent first place in the town since the Senedd was created in 1999 had tumbled to third.
