ByBrandon Kochkodin,
Forbes Staff.
Oil prices jumped Thursday after President Donald Trump’s administration announced new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. The Treasury Department said the move was a response to Moscow’s lack of progress toward ending the war in Ukraine.
Brent futures rose 5.7% to $66.15 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 6% to $61.95. It was oil’s biggest one-day gain since June 13 and, if it holds, only the sixth time since 2023 WTI prices have climbed more than 5% in a single session.
The sanctions explain part of the move. But the size of the jump also reflects how traders were positioned before the news. The futures market for oil is as tight as it has been in 15 years. The five narrowest weekly gaps between bullish and bearish bets by speculators have all come since August. At the end of September, there were just 26,483 more long contracts than short ones, compared with the median weekly gap since 2010 of 216,000. A long contract is a bet that prices will rise; a short contract is a bet that they will fall. When those positions are almost even, the market is finely balanced and more prone to big swings when news breaks. The gap may have narrowed even more in October, though the data is not being published because of the government shutdown.
