ByClem Chambers,

Senior Contributor.

The first lesson I learned about investing at the age of 11 was to know which way the market was going. Is it going up or down? It sounds too simple, but it’s the last thing most people consider. Buy-and-holder investors take it for granted that the market will go up forever, and to be fair, the long-term record supports that – so long as you don’t stray too far from the index.

However, for people who read articles like this, index tracking isn’t what they’re interested in. After all, getting out near a top and back in near the bottom can be extremely lucrative. Long-time readers here have seen me pull off this maneuver several times over the past two decades.

And so, here we are again, with markets going wild. In my view, the Nasdaq has entered a bubble. It’s still early, and it could run for quite some time, but unless the current trends break, the bubble will keep building.