RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is on course to sustain non-oil sector annual growth of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent through the next five to 10 years as its Vision 2030 diversification program gathers pace, Moody’s have forecast.
The rating agency cited strong momentum from services, tourism, and a pipeline of mega events including the 2027 AFC Asian Cup, the 2030 World Expo, and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, all of which are expected to reinforce the Kingdom’s non-oil expansion and attract sustained private investment.
Other rating agencies and consultancies share a similar outlook. Fitch Ratings expects Saudi Arabia’s non-oil growth to average around 4.5 percent through the medium term, while BMI and Strategic Gears forecast continued expansion in tourism and exports, reflecting broad confidence in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 diversification momentum.
This comes on the back of Saudi Arabia’s latest estimate, released on Sept. 30, in which the Ministry of Finance forecast real gross domestic product growth of 4.6 percent in 2026, supported by continued expansion in non-oil activities.
The ministry’s pre-budget statement set the 2025 projection at 4.4 percent, driven by a 5 percent increase in non-oil output, underpinned by robust domestic demand, rising employment, and expanding private-sector investment.
