Gold has been on a tear lately, notching several record highs, most recently nearing the $4,000 mark, as investors and central banks seek a safe haven amid a business climate full of uncertainty.
As Fortune has reported, Goldman Sachs is still bullish, calling for gold to hit $4,300 an ounce by late 2026, while Mark Haefele of UBS agrees that gold will remain an essential hedge. Deutsche Bank thinks that the gold rally shows that, deep down, investors are scared.
Bank of America Research isn’t so sanguine, with technical strategist Paul Ciana writing on Monday that investors should beware. “Risk of correction elevated,” he wrote in a market analysis seeking to answer the big question amid yet another government shutdown: “Can anything shut down the gold rally?” The answer is yes, of course. A “variety of multiple time frame technical signals and conditions warn of uptrend exhaustion,” Ciana noted.
Ciana acknowledged that while macroeconomic stresses and geopolitical tensions have funneled “safe haven” flows into gold, the trajectory has become precarious as speculative positions swell. The recent surge increasingly reflects momentum-driven buying rather than underlying fundamentals, Ciana stressed, elevating risks of a sharp reversal should sentiment shift or monetary policy surprise the market. He cited stretched charts, “overbought” signals, and waning positive divergence, warning that markets could see a correction if any supportive factors weaken or reverse.
