Happy Uptober. Over the last 13 Octobers, Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in 10 of them, and this month it is likely to extend that streak. Over the weekend, Bitcoin crossed above $125,000 for the first time, and the current odds on Polymarket are about 60% for it to break $130,000 by Halloween. Those numbers are impressive. But more important is an emerging narrative shift around Bitcoin.
The popular case for Bitcoin is that it is hard money that can’t be deflated by political actors or central banks. When the world is going to hell economically, it makes sense to store your wealth in a scarce decentralized asset that can’t be tampered with by corporations or governments. “Bitcoin solves this,” as they say.
It’s a compelling story but, as with many great tales, it’s mostly fiction. Despite ad campaigns to brand Bitcoin as digital gold and infinite HODL memes, the reality has been that, when the economy takes a nosedive, so does crypto. It’s a “risk-on” asset class that people dump at the first sign of trouble, along with junk bonds and emerging markets funds. That’s been Bitcoin—until recently, that is.
In 2025, the original case for Bitcoin—that it is a safe haven in times of trouble—could be coming true at last. First, during the Liberation Day tariff shock in April, the price of Bitcoin actually climbed even as the stock market plunged. That divergence was fairly short-lived but, since then, Bitcoin has behaved in an uncorrelated fashion to equities on several more occasions. And demand for both Bitcoin and gold has surged during this latest U.S. government shutdown as dollars and Treasuries have fallen—a signal investors have more faith in the decentralized nodes of Bitcoin than they do in the dysfunctional state of American politics.
