ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has slashed its annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.9 percent from an earlier target of 4.2 percent as devastating monsoon floods this year caused an estimated $1.3 billion (Rs371 billion) in damage, according to a preliminary government assessment seen by Arab News.
The revised outlook highlights how recurring climate disasters are undermining Pakistan’s fragile economic recovery, even as it implements structural reforms under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Monsoon rains and floods have killed over 1,000 people, affected more than 4.5 million since June 26, and submerged millions of acres of farmland and standing crops, according to disaster management authorities.
The damage estimates currently reflect losses only from Punjab province, and assessments in Sindh and other regions are still underway, suggesting the final toll could be significantly higher. The agriculture sector — which underpins food security and exports — is the hardest hit, suffering $546 million (Rs155 billion) in losses, with projected growth slowing from 4.5 percent to 4 percent, according to the government’s early report of damages.
Crop production has borne the brunt of the loss, with key staples such as wheat, rice and cotton expected to see growth decline from 6.7 percent to 4.5 percent. The industrial sector is projected to sustain more modest losses of $105 million (Rs29.9 billion), with growth revised slightly downward from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent, while the services sector faces losses of $652 million (Rs186 billion). The transport and storage sector incurred $259 million (Rs74 billion) in damages, and the information and communication sector will contract from 5.0 percent to 4.3 percent, losing $51 million (Rs14.5 billion). Education and health sectors have incurred combined losses of about $19 million (Rs5.6 billion).
